The latest economic indicators point to a recession or at least a market downturn. And though according to PitchBook data, “private equity generated some of its best performing vintages during the dot-com crash of 2001 and the 2008-2009 global financial crisis,” it is imperative that leaders examine and align their KPIs to today’s macroeconomic landscape. By leveraging accurate economic data and trends, CXOs can more efficaciously hone in on and manage the right metrics as we navigate an uncertain and potentially turbulent market.
Recession or “soft landing”: Opinions vary across the board
“Estimates of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product or real GDP, inflation, labor market indicators, and interest rates are all widely diffused, likely reflecting a variety of opinions on the fate of the economy — ranging from recession to soft landing to robust growth.”
— Julia Coronado, President, National Association of Business Economics
In the latest survey conducted by the National Association of Business Economics, while “58% of those surveyed still expect a recession this year, only a quarter foresee it starting in the next quarter.” Perhaps the uncertainty is around the latest (historically) tried and true indicators which actually showcase a positive scenario: the unemployment rate has hit a 50 plus-year low of 3.4% and the US added over half a million jobs in January. However, rising interest rates, inflation, layoffs amidst growing consumer confidence only continue to add to the perplexity and ongoing speculation.
To account for any...